Análisis técnico de la evolución del consumo energético en ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2020 para el análisis de sostenibilidad energética AL 2050

Abstract

During the three decades from 1990 to 2020, the country experienced an increase in the diversification of its energy matrix, incorporating renewable sources such as hydroelectric and wind power, although it still relies considerably on fossil fuels. In the transition towards a sustainable scenario by 2050, the importance of balancing economic growth, energy security, and emissions reduction is highlighted. The key lies in adopting emerging technologies, promoting research, improving governance, and analyzing the sustainability of the energy matrix. The study in Ecuador for the period 1990-2020 presents two prospective scenarios, BAU and SUST, exploring future scenarios considering economic, social, and environmental variables until 2050. The BAU Scenario projects a continuation of current trends, with a predominance of conventional energy sources and limited integration of clean technologies, reflecting traditional economic growth and persistent dependence on fossil fuels. On the other hand, the Sustainable Scenario (SUST) seeks an accelerated transition towards renewable energies and a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, focusing on the widespread adoption of clean technologies to meet international commitments on climate change. The design of these scenarios aims to provide a clear vision of possible future trajectories and their implications, facilitating informed decision-making at the governmental, business, and community levels. It is essential to consider that the effective implementation of any of these scenarios will require close collaboration between the public, private sectors, and civil society, as well as careful management of the socio-economic impacts associated with the transition towards sustainability