Browsing by Author "Salazar Orozco, Paúl Fernando"

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    Relación de las tasas de interés en el PIB y la inflación para lograr la estabilidad económica del Ecuador
    (Univeridad Técnica de Ambato. Facultad de Contabilidad y Auditoria. Maestria. Maestria en Economía con mención en Banca y Finanzas, 2024-11) Salazar Orozco, Paúl Fernando; DT - Proaño Córdova, Telmo Diego
    This thesis analyzes the interaction between interest rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation in Ecuador during the period 2006-2022. Using an econometric approach that includes Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models, VAR models, and Granger causality tests, it aims to understand the relationships between these key economic variables. The results of the OLS analysis indicate that a 1 percent increase in inflation is associated with an approximate 0,1462 percent increase in the active interest rate, demonstrating a directly proportional relationship. In contrast, a 1 percent increase in GDP is related to an approximate 0,071 percent decrease in the active interest rate, suggesting an inversely proportional relationship. These findings highlight the significant influence of inflation on the determination of interest rates and its impact on economic growth. The VAR analysis reinforces these relationships, showing that inflation has a predictive effect on the active interest rate and GDP. A unidirectional relationship is established where inflation "Granger causes" both the active interest rate and GDP, with no evidence of reverse causality. Variance decomposition reveals that the influence of inflation on GDP increases over time, suggesting that inflationary expectations become more relevant as time progresses. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Ecuador implement proactive monetary policies, adjusting interest rates in response to inflation to promote sustainable growth. Additionally, a comprehensive approach is suggested, incorporating external variables and promoting financial education to strengthen the country’s economic resilience. This work contributes to the understanding of economic dynamics in Ecuador and provides a framework for policies aimed at achieving stability and growth.