Economía

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Author: search.filters.author.Robalino Sánchez, Josué AndrésSubject: search.filters.subject.CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO

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    Créditos productivos estatales, importaciones y el crecimiento de la producción sectorial, con un enfoque al cambio de la matriz productiva en Ecuador
    (2024-11) Robalino Sánchez, Josué Andrés; DT - Morales Carrasco, Lilian Victoria
    The primary objective of this research is to analyze economic growth and the growth of the manufacturing industry from the perspective of Kaldor's law and the Import Substitution Theory. To achieve this, the study established the behavior of economic growth, manufacturing production, productive credits, and manufacturing imports through descriptive graphical analyses. Additionally, the factors related to economic growth and the growth of the manufacturing industry in Ecuador were determined through the application of two Vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometric models. The research also assessed the impact of these factors on economic growth and the growth of the manufacturing industry, estimating future behavior of the study variables using impulse-response tests for each significant relationship in the VAR models. The research adopted a quantitative approach, utilizing cross-sectional time series analysis and econometric modeling. Statistical data on variables such as real GDP, manufacturing imports, manufacturing production, state productive credits, and industrial productivity were employed, with historical data spanning from 2000 to 2022.Econometric results confirmed that the growth of the manufacturing industry has a significant impact on economic growth, validating its role as a cornerstone of Kaldor's growth model. The factors that facilitated this growth in the manufacturing industry included productive incentives measured by state productive credits allocated to national manufacturing companies that adhered to the government's import substitution policy. This policy aimed to transform the productive matrix by boosting local production and limiting manufacturing imports, particularly during the decade from 2007 to 2017.